Forecasts of international political events
Why blog geopolitical forecasts?
Making a forecast forces me to dig into available information on an issue and think a bit critically about why I’m interpreting the information in a particular way. There’s nothing like a forecast that turns out to be wrong to make it clear that there’s a problem with your thinking. The forecast and the analysis behind it are raw data for self-examination. The goal is to make correct forecasts, but the forecast is not the end of the process.
On a personal note, I joined the Good Judgment Project’s forecasting tournament. The tournament assigns participants to teams and the tournament’s website gives team members ways of communicating with other members of their team. There’s a forum for discussion of issues and members can comment on specific forecasts made by other members. The intention was that teams would work together to make better forecasts than individuals could make alone. Unfortunately for me, I ended up on a team with no interaction. I’m hoping this blog will attract criticism and comments that will help me make better forecasts than I could make alone.